Scott Bush, The Cheesecake Shop CEO, believes 2026 is shaping up to be a year of both stabilisation and transformation in the quick service restaurant (QSR) industry.
So what lies ahead? Here are his predictions:
What’s different in 2026
Bigger isn’t always better
People are beginning to reassess what value means to them and shifting their focus from quantity to quality. People’s discretionary income took a hit during Covid and the average consumer’s focus for several years was: “How far can I stretch my buck?” That’s starting to change as people’s perceptions of value change.
Big quantities or servings of average products are no longer considered good value by customers who now prefer to spend their money on higher-quality products they like, appreciate and enjoy – even if that means smaller portions or fewer serves.
No to novelty flavours
The QSR industry is perpetually experimenting with ingredients, tastes and textures but we’re no longer in a rapid cycle of fast flavour trends. Instead, I see the popularity of current trending flavours growing.
For instance, pistachio has been trending for a while but its popularity soared again when Dubai chocolate hit the market. If anything, the continued growth in demand for these flavours will help stabilise and even lower prices as more products hit the market.
Don’t get complacent with competition
If you’re a franchise business trying to predict where your next category competitor will surface, you need to look further afield. Competition will come from anywhere and everywhere.
At The Cheesecake Shop, our emerging competitors are both independent style bakeries and cake shops, as well as supermarkets reinventing their product offerings.
We also expect brand collaborations to become a defining force in staying ahead of competitors. Strategic partnerships will shape how brands cut through and capture consumer attention.
Technology can’t replace humans
You can’t talk about future trends without addressing the rise of new technologies and the prevalence of AI. There’s great potential to use technology to streamline processes and create a smoother customer experience – from online ordering to product customisation – and to automate tasks so staff can focus on core endeavours, such as customer service and product innovation.
At the end of the day, we’re in a customer service-driven industry so technological advances must be driven by customer insight and feedback. However, it’s important to appreciate that while automation can solve problems quickly, it can’t replace the trust, reassurance, and personal connection customers seek. The businesses that stand out will be the ones that pair digital efficiency with human empathy.
Opportunities ahead for QSR
More little treats
The culture of “little treats” as everyday moments of indulgence grew exponentially in 2025 and shows no sign of abating. When we unpack this culture, we can see two clear drivers.
Firstly, convenience, because not everyone wants a whole cake taking up space in their fridge, especially as population data shows we’re living in increasingly smaller households.
Secondly, affordability. Single-serve treats are a great budget-friendly way to indulge, especially as cost-of-living pressures continue to impact customers. We’ll see more treat-sized, snackable, and impulse-buy products introduced to menus across the industry.
Connecting and celebrating
Food will continue to drive connection, in the workplace and at home. People are dining out more; however, the cost of living continues to influence their purchasing decisions. What I see happening is people eating out with friends, but then going back to someone’s house for dessert.
As more workers return to offices there are opportunities to build workplace culture. Morning or afternoon teas are one way to unite staff and celebrate milestones.
Fresh twists of loved classics
When it comes to innovation, we see a trend of reimagining and modernising classics, rather than retiring them in favour of something new.
For example, the Black Forest Torte is one of The Cheesecake Shop’s original and best-selling cakes. We updated its appearance, replacing some of the heavy frosting and cream piping with a modern ‘naked cake’ aesthetic so customers could see the layers of cake, cherries and cream, and sales increased.
A continuing trend will be finding interesting and exciting ways to present popular products. That could mean changing the shape or size, repackaging the product or making it easier or more fun to consume – think cake pops, dessert jars or cheesecake sticks.
Reframing customer loyalty
There is a real opportunity for businesses to do a better job of building loyalty. Customers are wising up to points-based systems, rewards with no real value and how their data is collected and used for loyalty programs. There will be a big shift in this space as customers get even savvier and exercise their power as consumers. Businesses need to reframe how they attract loyalty and shift their focus from the transactional to the experiential.
Customers want relevance over rewards, and connection over coupons. The businesses that will win aren’t necessarily those dangling points – they’re the ones who keep innovating, while remaining reliable and consistent. When customers know they can trust you, that is where true loyalty is built.
